This week’s ©Mortgage Commentary 2009 brings us six relevant economic releases for the bond market to watch in addition to two important Treasury auctions. There is no relevant data or news expected to be released tomorrow, so look for the stock markets to heavily influence bond trading and mortgage rates until we get to the factual economic reports.

The Conference Board will post this week's first relevant economic report late Tuesday morning with the release of August's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). This index measures consumer sentiment about their own financial situations, giving us a measurement of willingness to spend. That is important because consumer spending makes up two thirds of the U.S. economy. A decline would indicate that consumers may not be making large purchases in the immediate future. That sign of economic weakness should drive bond prices higher, leading to lower mortgage rates Tuesday. It is expected to show a reading of 48.0 , which would be an increase from July's 46.6.

Thursday's only data is the first revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Last month's preliminary reading revealed that the economy declined at an annual rate of 1.0%. A larger than expected downward revision should help lower mortgage rates Thursday, especially if the inflation portion of the release does not get revised higher. Current forecasts are calling for a revised reading of down 1.4%. Friday is a multi-release day with the release of July's Personal Income and Outlays report and the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. The income and spending data measures consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. It is expected to show an increase of 0.1% in income and a 0.2% increase in spending. Weaker than expected numbers would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Also worth mentioning are a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect bond trading and mortgage rates this week. The two most important are Wednesday's 5-year Note and Thursday's 7-year Note sales. Results of this week's auctions will be posted 1:00 PM ET each day. If investor interest is strong in the auctions, we can expect the broader bond market to rally and mortgage rates to move lower. However, lackluster demand could lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

If considering financing/refinancing a home, the editor for ©Mortgage Commentary 2009 would.... Lock if closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2009